March 12, 2026/Cordros Report
We update our view on MTNN following the release of its 2025FY results, which reflected a stronger operating performance, supported by ARPU growth (+45.4% y/y), subscriber net additions of 6.40 million, EBITDA margin expansion (+13.63ppts y/y), and a swing from FX losses to FX gains. For 2026E, we model a target price (TP) of NGN975.47, implying a 26.2% upside from current levels (NGN773.00), and maintain a “BUY” rating on the stock. Our TP reflects expectations of (1) an 18.7% y/y growth in blended ARPU; (2) total subscriber net additions of 5.71 million to 93.01 million; and (3) a 23.3% y/y growth in data usage to 16.15GB. On the back of these assumptions, we forecast service revenue growth of 22.6% y/y, EBITDA margin of 55.5% and EPS growth of 55.7% y/y to NGN86.25 in 2026E. We also forecast DPS of NGN66.12 (Div yield: 8.6%). On our 2026E estimates, MTNN is trading at 9.4x P/E and 5.2x EV/EBITDA, vs MEA peer averages of 14.4x and 5.8x, respectively.
Earnings expansion to continue on strong operating fundamentals: We model a 22.6% y/y revenue growth in 2026E (2026E–2030E CAGR: 20.3%), driven by an 18.7% y/y growth in blended ARPU and subscriber net additions of 5.71 million to 93.01 million – data net adds of 3.73 million. Growth will be broad based across core revenue lines – data (+30.4% y/y), voice (+11.0% y/y), fintech (+20.6% y/y), digital (+21.2% y/y), and other revenue (+37.9% y/y). Data will remain the primary growth engine, with its contribution to total revenue expected to rise to 56.9% (2025: 53.5%). The segment’s expansion will be driven by higher data subscribers (+7.0% y/y), ARPU expansion (+26.2% y/y), and increased data usage (+23.3% y/y to 16.15GB), reflecting heavier consumption trends. For voice, (32.2% of revenue; 2025: 35.6%), growth will be driven mainly by a larger subscriber base (+6.5% y/y) and a 7.4% y/y expansion in ARPU. On profitability, we forecast EBITDA margin expansion of 280bps y/y to 55.5% reflecting higher revenue growth relative to the projected increase in total expenses (+15.3% y/y). Below the operating line, we expect finance costs to decline by 47.5% y/y, supported by lower leverage and relative currency stability. Finally, we forecast EPS growth of 55.7% y/y to NGN82.65 in 2026E, with 2026E – 2030E EPS CAGR of 27.9%.
FTTH as a long term value driver: Home broadband is becoming an increasingly important pillar of MTNN’s data strategy, delivered through fixed wireless access (FWA) and fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) as the company expands household connectivity. In 2025, MTNN added c.1.00 million home broadband users, bringing the total base to 4.20 million. Data intensity within the segment is significant, with average monthly consumption of c.400GB for FTTH and c.200GB for FWA. Management continues to scale last mile fibre rollout and network availability, positioning the segment for sustained expansion. Over the medium term, we believe FTTH will reinforce MTNN’s data growth trajectory as fibre rollout broadens and penetration improves. Thus, we project average data revenue growth of 27.0% over 2026E–2030E.
Valuation: Our target price is NGN975.47/s, derived from a 60/40 blend of DCF and sector relative valuation estimates. Our DCF FV is derived from an equal blend of FCFF (NGN969.87/s) and FCFE (NGN904.35/s) estimates, assuming a 21.3% WACC, 23.7% CoE and 4.0% terminal growth rate. Similarly, our multiple based FV was derived from a blend of EV/EBITDA (NGN875.84/s) and P/E (NGN1,190.16/s) estimates, utilising MEA peer averages for both factors (5.8x and 14.4x, respectively) as multipliers.
