The Nigerian equities market traded with mixed sentiments this week but ultimately closed on a positive note, as gains in BUACEMENT (+20.0%), TRANSCOHOT (+7.0%), and ZENITHBANK (+3.2%) more than offset declines in DANGCEM (-2.5%), PRESCO (-10.0%), and MTNN (-1.4%). As a result, the All-share Index advanced by 0.7% w/w to 198,407.30 points
March 13, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), US headline inflation held steady at 2.4% y/y in February (January: +2.4% y/y), broadly in line with market expectations. The steady print came despite a modest uptick in both food and energy prices. For context, energy inflation increased to 0.5% y/y (January: -0.1% y/y), reflecting higher gasoline and energy commodity prices, while food inflation edged up to 3.1% y/y (January: +2.9% y/y), driven mainly by food at home inflation rising to 2.4% y/y (January: 2.1%). This was partly offset by a slight moderation in food away from home, which eased to 3.9% y/y (January: +4.0% y/y). Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained stable at 2.5% y/y, reflecting relatively steady services and shelter prices. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose to 0.3% m/m (January: +0.2% m/m). Looking ahead, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, reflecting the impact of the ongoing US-Iran conflict on energy prices. In addition, food prices may remain elevated in the near term, reflecting supply constraints in key commodities such as coffee, arising from unfavourable weather conditions from key producers. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, likely keeping the policy rate unchanged at the upcoming March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Recent data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed that consumer prices rose sharply to 1.3% y/y in February (January: +0.2% y/y), marking the highest increase since January 2026 and coming in well above market expectations of 0.8% y/y. The spike largely reflected stronger consumer spending during the nine day Lunar New Year holiday in mid February, which lifted both food and non-food prices. Specifically, food inflation accelerated to 1.7% y/y (January: -0.7%), the fastest pace since October 2024, driven by higher fresh vegetable prices and a slower decline in pork prices. Similarly, non-food inflation increased markedly to 1.3% y/y (January: +0.4% y/y), supported by price increases in clothing, healthcare, and education. Meanwhile, core inflation climbed to 1.8% y/y (January: 0.8%), its fastest pace in seven years, reflecting the impact of policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices increased 1.0% m/m (January: +0.2% m/m). Looking ahead, February’s sharp increase appears largely driven by holiday related spending, suggesting the uptick in consumer prices may prove temporary. While the stronger print indicates some early traction from policy measures aimed at supporting demand, underlying inflationary pressures remain relatively subdued. Consequently, a sustained pickup in inflation will likely depend on a broader recovery in consumption, supported by continued monetary and fiscal policy easing.
Global Markets
Bearish sentiment persisted in the global equities markets this week as escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to undermine investor confidence. Intensified US and Israeli military operations heightened concerns about broader regional instability and potential disruptions to critical energy supply routes, which amplified inflationary concerns and tempered expectations for near term interest rate cuts. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: -1.7%; S&P 500: -1.0%; NASDAQ 100: -0.3%) were set to close the week lower, as markets priced in the potential inflationary implications of the Iran conflict, alongside the risk of renewed supply chain disruptions and tighter monetary policy conditions. These concerns largely overshadowed the February inflation data, which came broadly in line with expectations. Meanwhile, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: 0.0%; FTSE 100: +0.2%) ended the week broadly flat, reflecting choppy trading conditions as investors continued to monitor persistent geopolitical risks, particularly through the lens of oil price volatility. Asian markets (Nikkei 225: -3.2%; SSE: -0.7%) also weakened amid the broader global risk-off environment. Elsewhere, emerging and frontier market indices (MSCI EM: -0.5%; MSCI FM: -0.4%) declined, reflecting losses in China (-0.7%) and Vietnam (-4.2%), respectively.
Domestic Economy
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s total foreign trade declined by 1.1% y/y to NGN36.21 trillion in Q4-25 (Q4-24: NGN36.60 trillion | Q3-25: NGN39.77 trillion), largely reflecting the appreciation of the naira during the period (+11.7% y/y to NGN1450.11 in Q4-25 vs NGN1,620.15 in Q4-24). In dollar terms, however, total trade expanded by 10.5% y/y to USD24.97 billion (Q4-24: USD22.59 billion), driven by growth in both exports (+5.9% y/y to USD13.08 billion) and imports (+16.2% y/y to USD11.90 billion). Export growth was primarily supported by a strong increase in non-crude oil exports (+48.6% y/y) and non-oil exports (+10.7% y/y), which offset a sharp decline in crude oil exports (-29.6% y/y). The drop in crude exports reflected lower crude oil production (Q4-25: 1.58 mb/d vs 1.63 mb/d in Q4-24) alongside weaker oil prices (Q4-25: USD63.08/bbl vs USD74.01/bbl in Q4-24). On the other hand, the increase in imports can be attributed to the increase in non-oil imports (+21.0% y/y), which was driven by improved FX liquidity and consumer demand, as well as the rise in petroleum imports (+3.9% y/y). Overall, Nigeria’s trade surplus narrowed by 44.1% y/y to USD1.18 billion (Q4-24: USD2.11 billion), reflecting faster growth in imports relative to exports. For 2025FY, the trade surplus improved slightly to USD11.72 billion compared with USD11.34 billion in 2024FY. Looking ahead, we anticipate a notable expansion in exports, primarily driven by higher crude oil and petroleum product exports, supported by stronger domestic production and firmer oil prices. At the same time, declining petroleum imports, underpinned by rising domestic production, is likely to partly offset potential increases in non-oil imports, thereby keeping overall import growth broadly contained. Consequently, we expect the trade surplus to widen, likely reaching USD28.58billion in 2026E, a significant increase from USD11.72 billion in 2025FY.
Based on FMDQ data, total inflows into the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) surged to a four-month high, rising by 45.4% m/m to USD4.37 billion in February (January: USD3.01 billion). The outturn was driven by broad based increases across inflows from local (52.2% of total inflows) and foreign (47.8% of total inflows) sources. Specifically, inflows from local sources rose by 87.7% m/m to USD2.28 billion (January: USD1.23 billion), reflecting increases across the CBN (+859.1% m/m), individuals (+313.6% m/m), Exporters/Importers (+34.5% m/m) and non-bank corporates (+10.2% m/m). At the same time, inflows from foreign sources increased by 16.7% m/m to USD2.09 billion (January: USD1.79 billion), as the increase from the FPIs (+22.0% m/m) segment was enough to offset the decline in the other corporates (-25.2% m/m) and FDIs (-21.1% m/m) segments. Specifically, increases in the equity investment (+70.3% m/m) and Fixed income (+20.7% m/m) sub-segments drove the improvement in FPI inflows. In the near term, we expect foreign inflows to remain relatively subdued, as heightened global risk aversion may temper foreign investors’ appetite[OO2.1], thereby limiting inflows from external counterparts and constraining the pace of FX liquidity growth.
Capital Markets
Equities
The Nigerian equities market traded with mixed sentiments this week but ultimately closed on a positive note, as gains in BUACEMENT (+20.0%), TRANSCOHOT (+7.0%), and ZENITHBANK (+3.2%) more than offset declines in DANGCEM (-2.5%), PRESCO (-10.0%), and MTNN (-1.4%). As a result, the All-share Index advanced by 0.7% w/w to 198,407.30 points, bringing the month-to-date and year-to-date returns to +2.9% and +27.5%, respectively. On market participation, trading volume and value decreased by 12.8% w/w and 9.4% w/w, respectively. Sectoral performance was mixed, as the Industrial Goods (+5.7%), Oil & Gas (+1.5%), and Consumer Goods (+0.6%) indices advanced, while Insurance (-4.6%) and Banking (-1.0%) indices declined.
Looking ahead, we expect a cautious tone in the coming week, with selective buying likely to persist in bellwether names, although profit taking in recent outperformers could limit further upside. Investors will also closely monitor the domestic inflation print alongside evolving global geopolitical tensions.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate increased by 13bps to 22.3%, despite strong inflows from OMO maturities (NGN1.69 trillion) outweighing minimal debits from the OMO PMA (NGN81.00 billion) and net NTB allotments (NGN83.92 billion). That said, system liquidity improved, with the average net long position printing NGN6.52 trillion, compared with NGN5.40 trillion in the prior week.
In the coming week, we expect liquidity conditions to improve, supported by inflows of NGN1.06 trillion from OMO maturities, NGN398.65 billion from FGN bond coupon payments, and NGN700.00 billion from the MAR-2026 bond redemption. This substantial liquidity injection should exert downward pressure on the OVN rate, although a potential OMO auction and net NTB allotment could partly temper the pace of the decline.
Treasury Bills
Sentiment was mixed in the Treasury Bills secondary market, with NTB yields advancing by 20bps to 17.7% as investors unwound positions ahead of the NTB PMA, while OMO yields declined by 7bps to 21.0%, reflecting mild demand in the secondary market amid the absence of long-tenured OMO issuances. Across all instruments, the average yield increased by 1bp to 19.3%. At Wednesday’s NTB PMA, the DMO offered NGN850.00 billion in bills, with total demand reaching NGN2.78 trillion. Ultimately, NGN933.92 billion was allotted across all tenors, with stop rates on the 91‑Day and 182‑Day bills unchanged at 15.95% and 16.65%, respectively, while the 364‑Day bill declined marginally by 1bp to 16.72%. Separately, the CBN conducted an OMO auction, offering NGN600.00 billion across the 8‑Day, 99‑Day, and 113‑Day tenors. Total demand printed at NGN767.00 billion, with the CBN allotting NGN81.00 billion across the 99- and 113-Day maturities at respective stop rates of 19.35% and 19.69%.
Given our expectation of robust system liquidity, we anticipate Treasury bills secondary market yields to ease in the near term. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to conduct an NTB PMA next Wednesday (March 18), with NGN1.05 trillion in bills expected to be offered. At the auction, the elevated liquidity in the financial system is likely to support strong demand, with stop rates expected to remain broadly stable or edge marginally lower.
Bonds
The FGN bond market closed bearish as offshore selloffs undermined demand at the belly of the curve. Accordingly, average yields increased by 1bp to 15.8%. Across the curve, the average yield decreased in the mid (-13bps) segment, driven by demand for the JUL-2034 (-26bps) bond, while it advanced at the long (+4bps) end amid sell pressures in the JUN-2053 (+30bps) bond. The average yield closed flat at the short end.
In the coming week, we expect the NGN700.00 billion MAR-2026 bond maturity to boost system liquidity, supporting reinvestment flows and likely exerting downward pressure on yields as investors reinvest proceeds, likely leading to a moderation in yields. Over the medium to long term, FGN bond yields are expected to trend lower, supported by expectations of a sustained monetary easing cycle and ample liquidity in the financial system.
Foreign Exchange
The naira traded with notable volatility during the week as strong demand, particularly from offshore participants, outweighed available FX supply. The CBN intervened during the week, selling USD200.00 million to stabilize market conditions and provide liquidity support. Despite the earlier pressure, improved supply and sustained offshore inflows helped the currency appreciate by 0.6% w/w to NGN1,384.48/USD. Meanwhile, gross FX reserves rose by USD83.55 million w/w to USD50.03 billion as of March 11, crossing the USD50.00 billion mark and extending the build up to an eleventh consecutive week. In the forwards market, the naira rates appreciated across the 1-month (+0.9% to NGN1,400.95/USD), 3-month (+1.2% to NGN1,437.91/USD), 6-month (+0.6% to NGN1,491.86/USD) and 1-year (+0.1% to NGN1,597.02/USD) contracts.
The naira is likely to remain under moderate pressure, primarily reflecting subdued foreign portfolio inflows amid the ongoing US–Iran conflict, which continues to heighten investor risk off sentiments. That said, stronger export receipts and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s measured FX interventions should help contain excess volatility in the FX market and limit the risk of sharp currency depreciation.
