March 13, 2026/Coronation Report

Summary 

Nigeria’s trade balance weakened in Q4’25, with the surplus narrowing to N1.71tn, down 70.76% from N5.85tn in Q3, as exports declined sharply while imports recorded modest growth. Specifically, exports fell by 16.88% q/q, while imports increased by 1.73% q/q during the quarter. Despite the decline, Nigeria maintained a positive trade balance, supported by exports remaining higher than imports.

However, the sharp quarterly contraction highlights the sensitivity of Nigeria’s external balance to fluctuations in export earnings, particularly crude oil receipts. Sustaining a strong trade position will therefore depend on improvements in oil production and continued expansion of non-oil exports, which remain critical to reducing vulnerability to commodity price volatility and strengthening external sector resilience

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