April 16, 2026/Coronation Update

Summary

Nigeria’s headline inflation reversed its disinflationary trajectory in March 2026, printing at 15.38% y/y, the first year-on-year uptick since April 2025, driven primarily by a sharp surge in energy costs as PMS prices climbed to N1,200–N1,400/litre amid geopolitical tensions disrupting supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

The energy shock transmitted broadly into food, core, and service-sector prices, pushing month-on-month headline inflation to 4.18%, more than double February’s 2.01%. Core inflation rose to 16.21% y/y while food inflation accelerated to 14.31% y/y, with notable pressure from transport, housing utilities, logistics costs, and supply-side frictions.

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