September 17, 2021/United Capital Research

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

• According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 17.01% y/y in Aug-2021, printing lower than Jul-2021 inflation estimates (17.38%), implying that the rate of change in prices continued to subside.
• According to the Debt Management Office, Nigeria’s total public debt stock rose to N35.5tn as of June-2021 from N33.1tn as of Mar-2021. The total external debt stock rose by 9.9% to N13.7tn from N12.5tn while the total domestic debt stock rose by 5.4% to N21.8tn from N20.6tn.
• The Nigerian President, Muhammadu Buhari, seeks the National Assembly’s approval for additional borrowings of $4.1bn and €710.0m from bilateral and multilateral organisations to fund the 2021 budget deficit.
• According to Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), Nigeria’s electronic payment transactions increased by 85.5% y/y to N172.0tn in Aug-2021 from N92.7tn in Aug-2020.

Ghana

• Ghana’s Ambassador to the United States, Hajia Alima Mahama, has announced plans by the government to offer significant incentives for diaspora returnees to invest in Ghana. The proposed incentives include tax concessions, income tax holidays, and expedited permits and licenses, as well as custom duty exemptions.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) secretariat, headquartered in Ghana, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United Kingdom (UK) Government to formalise their shared commitment to the agreement’s successful implementation.

Francophone West Africa
Senegal

• Senegal CPI reduced to 2.7% y/y in Aug-2021 from 3.0% y/y in Jul-2021.
• According to the recently released Harmonized Survey on Household Living Conditions by the National Agency for Statistics and Demography, the percentage of the Senegalese population living below the poverty line declined to 37.8% in 2018/2019 from 42.8% in 2011.
• However, the number of poor people in Senegal increased by 3.4%, from 5.8 million to 6.0 million during the period.
• The National Society of Low-Rent Housing in Senegal has made a commitment to build 15,000 social housing units as part of the 100,000 Social Housing Program established by the President.

East Africa
Kenya

• Kenya’s coffee output declined by 18.0% to 36,000 tonnes in 2020 due to lower crop yields, according to the Economic Survey 2021 conducted by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
• Kenya’s Parliament Budget Office (PBO) said banks selected under the government’s Sh3.0bn Credit Guarantee Scheme loaned out only Sh296.4m ($2.6m) between Oct-2020 and Apr-2021. This indicates slow disbursement of loans to MSMEs.
• British exploration firm Tullow Oil has presented a revised development plan for oil production in Kenya’s Turkana County, bringing the project’s gross budget to around $3.4bn (Sh373.6bn).

Tanzania

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Tanzania kept the benchmark policy rate at 5.0% at their Sep-2021 meeting. 
• Tanzania has ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, becoming the 38^th country to ratify the deal.

Rwanda

• According to the National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR), Rwanda’s Real GDP expanded by 20.6% y/y in Q2-2021, a compelling rebound from the Covid-19 induced slump in Q2-2020, when the economy contracted by 12.4%.
• The NISR also released Rwanda’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Aug-2021. The main gauge of inflation declined by 0.6% y/y in Aug-2021 from -0.4% in Jul-2021.
• Rwanda’s foreign exchange reserves grew by 29.0% m/m in Aug-2021, reflecting the impact of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Uganda

• According to the Bank of Uganda’s Monetary policy report for the period ended Aug-2021, Uganda’s public debt stock has increased by 22.5% to Sh70.3tn from Jun-2021. 
• The country’s debt-GDP ratio also widened from 41.0% to 46.3%.
• Meanwhile, money in circulation increased by 4.4% to Sh6.3tn between Jun-2021 and July-2021.
• Supermarket chain Carrefour is reportedly set to take over six (6) stores in Uganda from South Africa’s Shoprite which is looking to exit the Ugandan market by Dec-2021.
• Uganda’s National Housing and Construction Corporation (NHCC) has tabled a request to the Ugandan Parliament for an allocation of Sh300.0bn per annum over the next 5 years for the establishment of standard estates in the new cities approved by Parliament in 2020.

Southern Africa 
South Africa

• According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), SA’s retail trade fell by 0.8% y/y in Jul-2021 despite rising by 10.5% y/y in Jun-2021. On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased by 11.2% m/m in Jul-2021 compared with the previous month.
• Stats SA also disclosed that South Africa’s mining sector continues to perform well as production rose by 10.3% y/y in Jul-2021, after rising by 19.1% y/y in Jun-2021. On a monthly basis, production jumped 4.1% m/m in Jul-2021, following a decrease of 1.6% m/m in Jun-2021.
• In addition, seasonally adjusted manufacturing output in South Africa was down by 4.1% y/y in Jul-2021, following a revised 11.9% y/y rise in Jun-2021. On a monthly basis, output fell by 8.0% m/m in Jul-2021 compared to the revised contraction of 1.3% m/m in June, following the impact of the third wave and unrest in the country.
• According to the National Department of Health (NDH), the total number of administered Covid-19 doses shot up to 4.0m after the provincial health department of Gauteng recently administered 64 885 jabs.
• Gauteng, South Africa’s most densely populated province, has vaccinated a total of 3.0m people and plans to vaccinate 10.0m by the end of Dec-2021.

Angola

• Angola’s headline inflation rate climbed for the fifth consecutive month to 26.1% y/y in Aug-2021 from 25.7% y/y in Jul-2021 as the Kwanza remained pressured due to strong dependence on imported food. On a monthly basis, inflation rose marginally by 2bps to 2.1% from the previous month.
• Moody’s upgraded Angola credit rating to B3 from CAA1 on the back of higher oil prices and improved governance.

Namibia 

• According to the Namibian Statistics Agency, Namibia’s headline inflation rate fell to 3.4% y/y in Aug-2021, from 4.0% y/y in Jul-2021, a five-month low. This was as food and transport price pressures moderated. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index decreased 0.2% m/m in Aug-2021, compared to 1.6% in the previous month.
• The president of Namibia, Hage Geingob has announced a relaxation of some Covid-19 lockdown measures as the country has vaccinated 9.0% of its total population. Notably, the ceiling on the number of people allowed in a public gathering has been increased to 150 from 100.

Zambia 

• The Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Zambia-China Economic and Trade Cooperation to facilitate the establishment of a cross-border e-commerce industrial park aimed at linking small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to international markets.
• According to data obtained from the Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development, Zambia recorded a 3.6% y/y decline in copper production in H1-2021 to 393,114.9 metric tonnes from last year’s 407,807.7 tonnes.

Zimbabwe 

• Zimbabwe’s Public Service Commission issued a directive mandating that all government employees be vaccinated, or they would be barred from entering their offices.
• The Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority has asked Mozambique and Zambia to supply her with more electricity as it tries to fill a power shortfall. The current shortfall was because of rehabilitation work at the Kariba South hydropower plant, constraints at its coal-fired Hwange plant and limited power imports.

Central Africa
Cameroon 

• International Development Agency (IDA), the World Bank’s affiliate that helps the world’s poorest countries, has announced that it would be lending Cameroon $29.0m to finance projects in preparation for the country’s fight against Covid-19.

Gabon 

• Perenco, a French oil and gas company, recently unveiled plans to construct a local Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) production plant in Gabon. The project forms part of the government’s efforts to reduce Gabon’s overreliance on oil for economic growth, exports, and fiscal revenues.

DR Congo

• The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has submitted a budget for 2022 worth $10.5bn, compared to $7.2bn in 2021, to its parliament for approval. The budget’s main focus is on security, health, and education.

Please click here to download the full report