Q1-2022 Foreign Trade Statistics: Elevated Crude prices and global inflationary pressures boost total trade value.
Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the nation’s Foreign Trade Statistics report. It revealed a further uptick in Nigeria’s trading activities as most countries ease the remainder of their Covid-19 restrictions and the increase in oil prices catalyzed by the global crude oil supply shortage resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict sanctions imposed on Russia. In addition, we note that higher price levels on the back of global inflationary trends also impacted the value of total trade. For context, Q1-2021 total trade value printed at N7.9tn, indicating a 64.6% y/y climb to settle at N13.0tn in Q-1 2022.
In Q1-2022, total exports grew 138% y/y to N7.1tn, driven by higher crude exports as oil prices rallied and demand for crude outweighed the supply following the global economy’s reopening, which encouraged travelling and increased energy consumption. In addition, higher crude prices contributed to the growth in export value. Interestingly, crude oil exports contributed 79.2% (compared to 68.4% in Q-1 2021) of the total export bill as Nigeria made N5.6tn from petroleum exports. Similarly, the import bill expanded 20.4% y/y to N5.9tn, primarily due to improved demand for imported goods as economic recovery sustained. In addition, we note that the global inflationary environment was higher, broadly impacting the nominal value of trade activities and, in tandem Nigeria’s imports.
Due to the faster growth of export bills, Nigeria’s trade surplus widened to print at N1.2tn (from an N1.9tn deficit in Q1-2021). Looking forward, we expect trading activities to remain energized. Export receipts will rise due to the expected sustained crude prices, although weaker oil output and supply chain bottlenecks could reduce growth momentum.
