June 8, 2022/CSL Research
Following the conclusion of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential primaries, with a total of 1271 votes, the national leader of the party, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT), emerged as the party flagbearer, very much in line with expectations. The former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, came a distant second with 316 votes, while the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, was in the third position with 235 votes. So, with the die cast for APC, barring any events of nature, we can safely conclude that the battle for the presidential seat will be between PDP’s Abubakar Atiku (AA) and APC’s Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT).
The received wisdom is that the presidential election will be closely contested. There is such a lack of reliable information/opinion polls that the only reasonable conclusion is that the outcome is open. We believe both candidates are popular enough to get 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states, and the winner will be determined by popular vote. Both candidates can effectively split the Northern votes. Though BAT is from the South West, APC governors of Northern Nigeria did not only agree to concede power to the South but have shown widespread support for him.
AA, who is Hausa Fulani from Adamawa state in North-East Nigeria, enjoys reasonable popularity there. Being the PDP flagbearer, he will quite naturally get the support of the South East and South-South regions, which are predominantly controlled by PDP, though APC has been encroaching on those regions gradually. While it remains difficult to measure the level of support he can get from the North Central region, the region’s dismay with Buhari and, in effect, the APC as a whole will likely leave Atiku as an option, we believe. That said, being a Northern Muslim may work against AA in that region, which has been severely divided along religious and ethnic lines.
The South-West–which is controlled by the APC will most likely go to BAT, the national leader of the party. Though, for the APC, the power of incumbency no longer confers the advantage it should, given what many people term a failure of leadership under President Buhari, its control of agencies, including the Nigeria Police Force, confers a clear advantage to the APC. The incumbent, President Buhari, being Hausa-Fulani from Katsina state in North-West Nigeria, has his traditional foothold in that region and can use that to get support for his party. BAT also appears to have reasonable grassroots support in the North.
In terms of policies, CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term ends in June 2024, and irrespective of who wins the elections, we believe he will be allowed to conclude his tenure. One of the successes of Emefiele’s term as governor has been the opening of the I&E window and the relentless defence of the currency. Could the CBN’s policy change with a new President come February 2023? A tough call, but AA has in various media chats leaned towards a deregulated foreign exchange market, and we believe the CBN governor will align his policies to suit the preferences of whoever becomes President. In our view, investors will remain on the sidelines till they can see free-market policies proposed by whoever takes the seat.
