April 7, 2023/United Capital Research

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Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

• According to statistics released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Nigeria’s broadband subscriptions reached 92.6mn in Feb-23, up from 92.0mn in Jan-23, maintaining its steady growth rate.
• On Tuesday, 28 March 2023, the House of Representatives accepted the Federal Government’s proposal to borrow $973,474,971.38 from the China Development Bank. This came after the China-Exim Bank denied Nigeria’s request for a loan of $22,798,446,773 that the National Assembly had previously approved.
• The Central Bank of Nigeria stated that total bank credit to the government increased from N24.7trn at the end of December 2022 to N28.4trn at the end of February 2023.
• The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that the average fare paid by air passengers for specified routes single journeys decreased by 0.2% m/m, from N74,702.70 in January 2023 to N74,571.62 in February 2023. It, however, rose by 66.4% y/y, from N44,825.04 in February 2022.
• Federal Government’s borrowing from China grew by 209.15% under the Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) administration. This is as total bilateral loans rose from $1.58bn as of June-15 to $5.07bn as of Dec-22.
• According to figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the country’s external reserves fell by $1.46bn between January and March. The reserves stood at $36.67bn on 23-Feb.
• The Director General of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Dr Bashir Jamoh, said the agency is driving the $2.5tn blue economy market by disbursing $720mn Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).
• The federal government has disclosed that it has secured a World Bank facility worth $800.0mn to attend to a segment of post-petroleum subsidy palliatives requirement in the country.

Ghana

• S&P Global purchasing managers’ index for Ghana’s private sector in Mar-2023 rose to 50.9 from 50.2 in Feb-2023. A year ago, it printed at 47.2. The Mar-2023 print is the highest reading since Dec-2021 and marks the second consecutive month of expansion.
• Ghana’s parliament has passed three revenue bills that the government believes will be critical in restoring the West African country’s economic stability and growth. The three revenue bills are the Income Tax (Amendment) Bill, the Excise Duty and Excise Tax Stamp (Amendment) Bill and the Growth and Sustainability Levy Bill.

Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)

Senegal

• According to the World Bank, Senegal’s economy is expected to grow by 8.0% in 2023 and 10.5% in 2024, buoyed by growth in the oil and gas industry.

Ivory Coast

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ivory Coast authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on a new $3.5bn arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility s(EFF). The programmes aim to preserve fiscal & debt sustainability and advance more profound economic transformation.
• The World Bank announced new technical and financial support for the Ivory Coast to rehabilitate and maintain approximately 15,000 kilometres of rural roads and infrastructure in 11 regions.

Southern Africa

Angola

• The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stunned the global markets with a surprise decision to cut supply by (-)1.66mn barrels a day. This sums up to a total production cut of 3.66mn barrels a day since October 2022 (-2.0mn barrels a day).
• Even before the surprise supply cuts unveiled this week, OPEC’s oil output fell as Angolan production sank to the lowest in almost two decades (below 1.0mn barrels a day).
• According to a Bloomberg survey, supplies from (OPEC) slipped by 80,000 barrels a day to 29.16 million a day in March, with Angola’s slump eclipsing a continued recovery in Nigeria,
• According to data from the Energy Intelligence Group (EIG), Angola extended its long-running decline due to maintenance at two oil fields, with output dwindling by 110,000 barrels a day to just 990,000 barrels a day in March: It’s the lowest level since 2004.
• According to the Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Angola’s GDP rose 2.6% in Q4-2022 versus +3.9% in Q3-2022.
• According to the Ministry of Finance, the deadline for selling 73 state-owned assets and enterprises has been postponed due to the need to complete restructuring processes. The extension period will enable the government to include the sale of new assets recovered in the fight against corruption.

Botswana

• The Botswana Unified Revenue Service 30-Mar announced the reversion to the standard 14.0% VAT rate, effective 1-Apr. The announcement includes that: 1) the reduced 12 per cent VAT rate applies only until March 31; 2) all VAT-registered persons will be required to charge the standard 14.0% rate on 1-Apr; and 3) the Tax Agency will issue transitional guidance.
• According to Statistics Botswana, the country’s GDP rose 5.9% y/y in Q4-2022 versus a revised +5.3% in Q3-2022. Real GDP tapered -2.3% q/q in Q4-2022 from 3.7% q/q in Q3-2022.

South Africa

• According to Bloomberg, Spain is providing 2.1 billion euros ($2.3bn) to help fund South Africa’s energy transition and water needs, even as some of the world’s wealthiest nations struggle to push forward on a ground-breaking climate-finance initiative with the continent’s most-industrialized country.
• The Spanish funding is provided through a mixture of financial instruments, with the country’s government working with its development finance institution.
• According to Statistics South Africa, South Africa’s electricity production fell 9.7% y/y in Feb-2023 versus -8.0% in Jan-2023. In tandem, overall electricity consumption declined 8.7% y/y vs -7.3% in Jan-2023.
• According to Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, the South African government should consider exemptions from emissions limits to enable power plants such as the Kendal facility to boost power generation.
• Kendal facility already struggles to remain within emission limits; addressing this could enable the facility to provide 1,000 megawatts to the national electricity grid.

 
Zambia

• According to a statement by IMF, IMF staff and Zambian authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on the first review of the African nation’s economic program under an Extended Credit Facility for a total amount of $1.3 bn.
• In addition, it was disclosed that all structural benchmarks and quantitative performance criteria for the first review had been met, and Zambia will have access to about $188 million in financing once the study is approved by IMF management.
• The Stanbic Bank and S&P Global release of Zambia’s private sector purchasing managers’ index for March, the country’s PMI declined to 46.9 from 51.3 in Feb-2023. This represents its lowest reading since Sept-2020.
• According to Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane, Zambia’s request that creditors write off large amounts of its debt is holding up a restructuring deal. The country seeks to reorganise $12.8bn of external debt after becoming Africa’s first pandemic-era sovereign defaulter in November 2020.
• According to the government, creditors need to agree to reduce the amount under negotiation by almost half for the plan to match sustainable debt levels set out in the analysis from the International Monetary Fund.

 
Zimbabwe

• Bloomberg revealed that the greenback had replaced the Zimbabwean dollar as the most-used currency in the southern African nation for a second time, almost four years after the re-introduction of the local unit. 
• Data compiled by the Zimbabwean statistics agency disclosed that the US dollars were utilised for 77.0% of transactions in FY-2022, surpassing the proportion conducted in the local currency for the first time since it was reissued in June 2019.
• The Zimbabwean dollar was abolished in 2009 and replaced mainly by the US dollar after hyperinflation rendered it worthless. It was reintroduced in an attempt to revive the stagnating
  Economy.
• According to Bloomberg, Econet Wireless Zimbabwe may call for an extraordinary general meeting to consider a renounceable rights issue of new ordinary shares to raise about $30.3mn. The proceeds would be used to redeem the company’s outstanding debentures.
• The monetary policy committee of the Bank of Zimbabwe voted to cut the world’s highest benchmark interest rate to 140.0% from 150.0%. This follows a 5,000bps cut in February. Zimbabwe’s central bank became the second in Africa, after Angola’s, to cut its key interest rate twice this year, as inflation is forecast to ease further.

East Africa

Kenya

• According to Stanbic Bank and S&P Global release purchasing manager’s index for Kenya’s economy in Mar-23, the index rose to 49.2 from 46.6 in Feb-23 and 50.5 in Mar-22. Output rose to 47.8 in Mar-23 vs 44.2 in Feb-23.
• Kenya’s currency depreciated for a record 72^nd consecutive day on 05-Apr to KSh113.04/$ according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Rwanda

• Rwanda and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on policies needed to complete the first reviews under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement. Under the RSF and upon board review, Rwanda will have access to $74.6mn.
• In its most recent “Africa’s Pulse” report, the World Bank concludes that 22 Sub-Saharan African countries are at high risk of external debt distress.

Uganda

• According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Ugandaa’s CPI rose 9.0% y/y in Mar-23 from 9.2% in Feb-23. They rose 0.6% m/m vs -0.1% m/m in Feb-23. Core inflation rose 7.6% y/y in Mar-23 compared to 7.8% y/y in Feb-23, while food inflation rose 26.7% y/y in Mar-23 vs 27.4% y/y in Feb-23.
• Stanbic Bank and S&P Global release purchasing managers’index for Uganda’s whole economy in Mar-23 rose to 53.2 from 51.2 in Feb-23, and from 51.9 in Mar-22. It represents its eighth consecutive month of expansion. The output index rose to 56.1 in Mar-23 vs 51.9 in Feb-23.
• According to the Bank of Uganda (BOU), Uganda’s M3 money supply rose 6.7% y/y in Feb-23 vs revised 5.5% y/y in Jan-23.
• Also, the BOU stated that Uganda’s current account deficit narrowed to $1.003bn in Q4-22 from a revised $1.122bn in Q3-22.
• The BOU benchmark interest rate was unchanged at 10.0%.
• The Finance Ministry is to present a request to Parliament to approve the Government’s request for $200.0mn financing from the World Bank for industrial transformation projects.

Central Africa

Cameroon

• According to the National Institute of Statistics (INS), Cameroon’s trade deficit declined to CFA307.0bn (5.4% of GDP) in Q3-2022 from CFA344.3bn (5.9% of GDP) in Q3-2021. The slight reduction results from a 1.2% increase in the volume of exports coupled with a 0.5% decline in imports.
• S&P Global Ratings affirms Cameroon’s Local and Foreign Currency LT credit rating at “B-“. The rating agency also announced that the country’s outlook is stable.