April 14, 2023/United Capital Research

Anglophone West Africa
Nigeria

• According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s debt servicing costs climbed by 14.7% y/y to N3.4tn in 2022 from N2.93tn spent on external and domestic debt servicing payments in 2021. Out of the N3.4tn recorded in 2022, domestic debt servicing accounted for N2.6tn, with the highest expenditures of N529.9bn recorded in April 2022. Noteworthy to mention is that Nigeria’s total debt stock stood at N46.3tn as of December 2022.
• According to the World Bank, Nigerian economy is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2023, down from 3.3% projected in 2022. This forecast was supported by expected growth in services, trade, construction, manufacturing and agriculture. Economic growth is expected to accelerate slightly to an average annual rate of 3% in 2024/25.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2023 at 3.2%, whilst the forecast for 2024 was marginally increased from 2.9% to 3.0%.
• Foreign investment into the telecommunication sector Increased by 325.1%  y/y to $456.8mn in 2022 from $107.5mn in 2022 due to increased 5G rollout and 4G expansion. Despite the country’s challenging economic environment, the sector has retained its foreign investment appeal.

Ghana

• According to Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), headline inflation eased for the second month to 45.0% y/y in March 2023, from 52.8% in February 2023. This is the lowest reading since October 2022. The decrease was buoyed by the decline in food and fuel prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased, recording at -1.2% m/m in March after increasing by 1.9% m/m in the previous month.
• According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its average inflation forecast for Ghana in 2023 to 45.4% from 31.9% in 2022. This is in line with the high global prices of commodities, such as crude oil etc.
• In addition, the Fund lowered Ghana’s 2023 economic growth rate forecast to 1.6%  from its earlier projection of 2.8%. This comes after the World Bank cut the country’s economic growth rate forecast to below 2.0%. The revised growth is due to the weakness of economic activities in Ghana amid global shocks and heightened macroeconomic instability.
• Ghana plans to secure approval from the IMF’s board for a $3.0bn bailout prior to restructuring its Eurobonds. Noteworthily, the country is yet to complete negotiations to reorganise about $13.0bn of Eurobonds after the government unilaterally suspended coupon payments on most of its external obligations last December.

 
Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Ivory Coast

• In the midst of a structural reform, the government of Cote d’Ivoire has reached a $3.5bn financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) compared to the $2.6bn expected.

 
East Africa
Kenya

• Media reports revealed that the amount planned to be raised from a syndicated loan by the Kenyan government was lowered from $600.0mn to $500.0mn. The first $200.0mn tranche is expected this week.
• Kenya has received $390.0mn from World Bank to expand internet access. Funds will be for the project’s first phase to expand access over the next five years.
• The second phase will run from 2026-2030, concentrating on building a data-driven and secure environment for enhanced digital service delivery and innovation for the digital economy.
• Project will mobilise an estimated $100.0mn in private capital by crowding in the private sector for broadband infrastructure development.
• Tea Brokers East Africa disclosed that Africa’s average tea price rose 0.5% w/w to $2.20/kg at 11-Apr to 12-Apr sales in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa from $2.19/kg the previous week.

Rwanda

• Rwanda’s urban CPI rose 19.3% y/y in Mar-2023 versus the +20.8% y/y print in Feb-2023, according to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda.
• Rwandan President, Paul Kagame disclosed that the East African nation is considering using modular nuclear plants as the continent looks to increase access to electricity.

Tanzania

• Tanzania’s consumer prices rose 4.7% y/y in Mar-2023 versus +4.8% y/y print in Feb-2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics Tanzania.
• Tanzania and Burundi have floated a tender for designing and constructing an electrified railway that will initially connect the two countries and pass through the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as the countries look to tap AfCFTA, the world’s largest single market, and create the continent’s second multinational electrified railway.
• Media reports disclosed that in Q1-2023, investments in Tanzania increased by 52.4% to $1.2bn (Sh2.8tn).

Uganda

• Ionic Rare Earths disclosed that it increased its stake in Rwenzori Rare Metals, the sole owner of the Makuutu rare earths project, to 60.0% from 51.0% earlier.
• Furthermore, Ionic Rare Earths Ltd. received government approval to start on a demonstration plant at the Makuutu rare earths project with early works underway. 
• The Demonstration plant is meant to validate and optimise feasibility study results.  Construction of permanent metallurgical and analytical laboratories has commenced.
• The Demonstration plant will be constructed in two phases to de-risk the project and scale up. The first phase will be operational during Q3-2023. Commercial quantities of mixed rare earth carbonate from the plant are expected to be available later in 2023 for discussions with potential supply chain partners.

 
Southern Africa
South Africa

• According to the South African Reserve Bank, the country’s gross revenues rose to $61.9bn in Mar-23 from $61.0bn in Feb-23. Net reserves rose to $55.2bn (estimate $54.8bn) from $54.1bn in Feb-23.
• According to Statistics South Africa, the country’s manufacturing production fell 5.2% y/y in Feb-23 against a fall of 4.1% in Jan-23. Seasonally adjusted production fell 1.3% m/m vs a rise of 0.5% m/m in Jan-23.
• Eskom, South Africa’s state-owned power utility, disclosed that it would ramp up rolling blackouts to 6,000 MW due to a capacity shortage. Stage 6 load shedding, as it is known, is the highest level of power outages implemented since 26 Feb.
• South African Labor Union has sought to negotiate a multi-year agreement, demanding a CPI + 3ppts. Raise at Eskom. It also demands that housing allowance be increased by 5.0%.

Angola

• The Oil Minister disclosed that Chevron Corp. is finalising a production-sharing agreement with Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
• The CEO of Sonangol disclosed that Angola does not guarantee the supply of crude oil to the three refineries under construction due to contractual obligations, stating that refineries seeking to purchase crude from Angola to negotiate with holders of crude-production quotas.
• In its latest Africa’s Pulse report, the World Bank stated that 22 sub-Saharan African countries are at high risk of external debt distress due to rising loan levels and increased non-concessional lending. An increase in spreads that have narrowed the number of nations with market access increases refinancing risks for countries, including Angola.

Zimbabwe

• Zimbabwe has joined the OECD’s Global Forum on tax transparency and exchange of information, committing the African nation to help fight worldwide tax evasion. As a member, the country will implement international standards on the exchange of tax information on request and the automatic exchange of financial account information.
• The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has frozen the assets of four officials implicated in gold smuggling, money laundering and bribery.

Zambia

• Zambia’s Treasury Secretary stated that the country is a step closer to a long-awaited debt-restructuring agreement, as its official bilateral creditors are set to meet on 18-Apr. The country seeks to revamp $12.8bn in loans held by creditors, including Eurobond holders and Chinese state-owned banks
• The IMF has reached a staff-level agreement with Zambian authorities on the first review of the nation’s economic program under an Extended Credit Facility for a total of $1.3bn. Zambia will have access to $188.0mn in financing once the IMF management approves the review.

 
Central Africa
Cameroon

• The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) announced that it will disburse CFA200mln to help the Cameroonian government provide better living conditions to street children in Cameroon.
• Last week, The Bank of Central African States Beac ordered 150 million new coins into the economy to reduce the recent shortage in the Cemac region. No details were released on the value of the coins, but Beac Governor Abbas Mahamat Tolli said the new range should be delivered in the next few months.
• The animal feed manufacturer FAE Sarl, based in Dschang, in the western region of Cameroon, announced it is investing a little more than CFA692.0mn to expand its production over the next 4 years. The aim is to move from artisanal production to the industrialization phase.
• According to a document released by the national stats agency Cameroon’s trade deficit went down from CFA344.3bn (5.9% of GDP) in Q3 2021 to CFA307.0bn (5.4% of GDP) in Q3 2022.
• Extracts from the document also revealed that the slight reduction is the result of an increase of 1.2% in the volume of exports coupled with a decline of 0.5% in that of imports (which was mainly driven by a lower import of services of 4.9%, which offset the slight increase in the import of goods (+0.4%)).
• According to the Beac in its monetary policy report, Foreign exchange reserves within the Economic Community of Central African States (Cemac) stood at CFA6,771.3bn (€10.3bn) as of January 2023, 43.0% higher than CFA4,690.0bn (€7.1bn) the same period last year.
• The Minister of Public Works (Mintp), Emmanuel Nganou Djoumessi, announced this week during a site visit that the rehabilitation works on the bridge over the Mayo Limani, which collapsed in 2015, are fully completed. The 124 meters infrastructure should be delivered in the next few days.
• Cameroon and France have teamed up to create a joint research hub. The related declaration of intent was inked this week in Paris between the Cameroonian Minister of Scientific Research and Innovation, Madeleine Tchuinte, and Sylvie Retailleau, France’s Minister of Higher Education and Research.
• The Cameroonian Treasury issued last week 26-week fungible Treasury bills (BTAs), seeking CFA25.0bn on the Beac public securities market. This operation is another attempt after three mixed performances since the beginning of the year.
• France-based startup PaySika, owned by Cameroonians Roger Nengwe Ntafam (pictured) and Stezen Bisselou-Nzengue, announced it has joined the Fintech Fast Track program led by digital payment leader Visa. Under this program, which is a helping hand to innovative companies, PaySika will benefit from the vast network of Visa’s partners to unfold its expansion plan.
• According to the Minister of Public Works, Emmanuel Nganou Djoumessi, the bridge over the Logone River, which links the Cameroonian town of Yagoua and the Chadian town of Bongor, is scheduled for completion in 2024. Works are already 43.0% completed.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• Gecamines, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s state-owned copper and cobalt miner, raised $75.0mn to extract more minerals from waste material at its Big Hill tailings site in Lubumbashi. 
• Part of the funding comes from the renewal of an existing $20.0mn prepayment agreement with Trafigura Group in return for the extension of the exclusive commercial contrac for the purchase of zinc oxides. The rest of the financing came from Congo’s Rawbank SA and the company’s Societe Congolaise pour le Traitement du Terril de Lubumbashi (STL) owned funds.
• The board of China’s CMOC Group has approved $2.65bn funding to guarantee the operations of two of its mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.