April 21, 2023/United Capital

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

• The Federal Government approved the second phase of the electronic Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund, which will enable concessionaires to upgrade the infrastructure at N15.0bn.
• The World Bank, in its “Macro Poverty Outlook for Nigeria: April 2023” report, noted that Nigeria spent 96.3% of its revenue on servicing debt in 2022. This is due to increasing public debt stock incurred by the country. The country’s fiscal deficit stood at 5.0% of GDP in 2022, breaching the stipulated limit for a federal fiscal deficit of 3.0%.
• According to the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), the value of electronic payment transactions increased by 31.4% to N49.5tn as of March 2023 from N37.7tn reported as of February 2023. The increase was due to a reduction in failed electronic transactions.
• According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), currency in circulation in the country jumped by N701.4bn in one month to hit N1.6tn in Mar-2023 after the CBN’s reversal of the  Naira redesign policy.
• The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Gbenga Komolafe, on the sidelines of the ongoing Nigerian International Energy Summit in Abuja yesterday, revealed that the Federal Government will in the coming weeks, release 13 new regulations in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry.

Ghana

• According to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), Ghana’s economy grew 3.7% y/y in Q4-2022, compared with 5.6% y/y in Q4-2021 and 2.9% y/y in Q3-2022. Overall, the economy grew 3.1% y/y in FY-2022, compared to 5.1% y/y in FY-2021. This marginally beats the 3.0% growth forecast earlier set by the government.
• Also, GSS data showed that Ghana’s Producer Prices rose 43.7% y/y in Mar-23 as against 50.8% in Feb-23. On a month-on-month basis, producer prices rose 1.7% in Mar-23 relative to 7.0% m/m in Feb-23.

Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Ivory Coast

• Cybastion signed a public-private partnership (PPP) agreement worth $23.0mn with the Ivorian Ministry of Tourism. The PPP agreement was entered into in order to revolutionise the tourism sector in Cote d’Ivoire.  This partnership is a significant milestone in achieving the Ivorian tourism sector’s goal of being among the top five African tourism destinations by 2025, with a target of welcoming 5.0mn tourists.

Senegal

• According to the National Agency of Statistics and Demography, Senegal’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 9.5% y/y in Mar-2023 as against +9.4% y/y print in Feb-2023.

East Africa
Kenya

• The Kenyan government plans to return to International Capital Markets (ICMs) after a two-year break to refinance a $2.0bn Eurobond maturing in June 2024.According to the Capital Market Authority, Kenya bonds were undersubscribed in Q1-2023. Investors’ bid totalled Ksh164.1bn compared to the government’s target to raise Ksh190.0bn. Notably, the bid acceptance rate dropped to 75.0% in Q1-2023 (compared to 76.2% in Q4-2022), as the government sold just Ksh141.7bn.
• The Kenyan government has announced its plans to move the country into 100.0% green energy by 2030. The country’s aim is to reduce its carbon print by utilising solar, wind, hydrogen power and bioenergy.

Rwanda

• The Rwandan Ministry of Trade and Industry (MINICOM) has announced a waiver of Value Added Tax (VAT) on maize flour and rice. This move is aimed at taming skyrocketing food prices in the country.
• The Central Banks of Cambodia and Rwanda have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), aiming at strengthening cooperation in different areas of financial sector development.

Tanzania

• Moody’s Investors Service (the Rating Agency) affirmed Tanzania’s credit rating at B2 Positive. The Rating Agency attributed the positive outlook to lessened political risks in Tanzania, engagement with international community, and structural reform agenda.The Tanzanian government plans to set up an investment fund to address lack of capital among public institutions whose current requirements stand at Sh1.1tn.
• According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Tanzanian economy is set to grow to $136.0bn by 2028 from its current position of $85.4bn (Sh200.0tn).

Uganda

• The Nordic Development Fund (NDF) has announced its contribution of €500,000 (Shs2.0bn) to Uganda to finance climate-friendly projects and address climate financing gaps in Africa.
• According to the Bank of Uganda, the trade between Uganda and Rwanda has grown to $20.0mn per month as a result of improved bilateral relations (reopening of borders).

Southern Africa
South Africa

• According to Statistics South Africa (SSA), the country’s CPI for March 2023 climbed faster than the overall market estimate (+6.9% y/y), up by 7.1% y/y, compared to +7.0% y/y recorded in February 2023. On a month-on-month basis, South Africa’s inflation inched up by 1.0% m/m in March 2023, 30bps faster than the +0.7% m/m recorded in February 2023.
• The higher inflation print highlights the strain consumers are under, which increases the banking industry’s credit risk. Additionally, South Africa’s currency and bonds extended decline this week on the back of the higher-than-expected inflation print for March 2023.
• Johannesburg’s FTSE/JSE Banks Index fell as much as 2.3%, underperforming the broader benchmark after data showed that consumer prices rose more than Economists’ expectation
  in March 2023.
• According to SSA’s most recent data release on South Africa’s retail sales, the country’s retail sales fell by 0.5% y/y in February, 50bps less than overall market expectation (-1.0% y/y), and 30bps less than February 2023’ print of -0.8% y/y. This indicates the resilience of consumer spending in the country, despite the elevated interest and inflation environment.
• On the 14^th of April 2023, the South African Revenue Service posted revised VAT guidance on supplies of electronic services by nonresident suppliers and intermediaries. Topics covered
  include registration requirements and processes; declaration submission requirements; payment methods; VAT registration cancellation; and the calculation of input tax.
• The New Development Bank (NDB) announced an invitation to holders of its outstanding $1.5bn 0.625% notes due June 23, 2023 (ISIN: XS2192077514) to tender such notes for purchase. The offer starts on April 18 and will expire at 4 pm London time on April 24, unless extended, withdrawn, re-opened, or terminated.
• The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Johannesburg reported that business confidence for March 2023 fell to 111.3pts, down by 54bps m/m compared to the 111.9pts recorded in the prior month.
• According to Bloomberg, Petrefuel Holdings, a unit of Petredec Onshore, announced plans to buy 100.0% shares of Royale Energy, with its current shareholders opting to take up a 15.0% share in the jointly merged entities. No financial details about the transaction were revealed.
• The addition of Royale Energy to Petrefeul’s portfolio expands its geographic footprint into the South African provinces of Gauteng, Limpopo, and the North-West and adds two liquid fuels
  storage terminals on the Transnet fuel pipeline.
• On Wednesday, 19 April 2023, the South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, in a meeting with the Presidential Climate Change Commission, pledged to meet the nation’s net zero carbon emission target by 2050, despite a push to keep coal-fired power plants open. 

Angola

• According to Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, the country’s Consumer Price Indexfor March 2023 climbed by 10.81% y/y, compared to +11.54% y/y recorded in February 2023.
• According to Angola Central Bank’s Governor, Jose de Lima Massano, Angola’s Central Bank is prepared to cut interest rates further this year as inflation cools in the oil-producing African nation. 
• The Banco Nacional de Angola reduced the benchmark rate to 17.0% from 18.0% in March 2023. This indicates the second drop in 2023. Lowering borrowing costs makes Angola an outlier in Africa, one of only two countries on the continent to reduce rates this year as countries from Nigeria to Morocco and Kenya battle to rein in inflation.
• According to Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa, the Angolan Government is not planning to sell bonds in international markets now.  However, the Angolan Government intends to focus on securing long-term credit lines with low-interest rates as much as possible.
• Data Extracts from Banco Nacional de Angola revealed that Angola’s gross reserves rose to $14.08bn in March 2023, from the revised $13.96bn in February 2023.
• According to Angola’s General Tax Administration Board, the country’s tax revenue increased 40.0% to 13.7 trillion kwanzas in FY-2022. This was driven mainly by higher oil prices. The oil sector contributed 9 trillion kwanzas, a 51.0% increase from 2021, while non-oil revenue rose 22.0% to 4.6 trillion kwanzas. Notably, Angola has approximately 7 million taxpayers, 89.0% are individuals while about 11.0% are businesses.
• According to a preliminary loading schedule seen by Bloomberg, Angola is scheduled to ship 1.06m b/d in June 2023, slightly down from 1.07m b/d in May 2023. June’s plan has 33 cargoes carrying a combined volume of 31.7mbbl.

Zambia

• As cited by Bloomberg, Zambia’s official creditors, co-led by China, made progress toward a long-awaited debt-restructuring deal on Tuesday, 18 April 2023 and will meet again in May 2023.
• In addition, it was disclosed that the creditors may sign a memorandum of understanding when they reconvene. Remarkably, the agreement is a prerequisite to unlocking a $188 million disbursement from the IMF.

Central Africa
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• According to Bloomberg reports, Chinese mining company CMOC (previously China Molybdenum Co. Ltd.) announced that it has finalised a deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s state-run mining company (Gecamines) to resolve a nearly year-long dispute over royalty payments from the Tenke Fungurume copper and cobalt mine that had blocked the passage of more than $1 billion worth of battery metals to global markets.   
• The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) have signed a framework agreement with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia for the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZ) to produce Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and related services.
• Australia’s AVZ Minerals Ltd. Started arbitration against its state-owned joint venture partner in the Democratic Republic of Congo for trying to cancel an agreement to mine what could be one of the world’s biggest lithium deposits.
• DRC’s oil ministry confirmed that the Democratic Republic of Congo has postponed the deadline for companies to submit bids for 24 of its 27 oil blocks up for tender. The bids for three blocks near Congo’s western coast are still due from 21-Apr-2023 to 05-May-2023. However, the deadline for the others will be announced after a roadshow event in London on 11-May-2023.
• Congo’s Oil Minister, Didier Budimbu Ntubuanga disclosed that Chevron is finalising a production-sharing agreement with Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo to operate their shared offshore oil block. As part of the deal, Angola’s state-owned oil company Sonangol will write off a $200.0mn debt owed to it by Congolese state oil company Sonahydroc.