May 8, 2026/InvestmentOne Report

MTN Nigeria posted a robust top-line performance in Q1:2026, with total service revenue increasing to NGN1.49trn (+41.80% YoY). Importantly, this growth reflects volume-driven momentum rather than a pricing-driven base effect as the tariff adjustments implemented in mid-Q1 2025 are no longer in the current period, making the current growth a more credible measure of underlying business performance. Total subscribers expanded to 89.50 million (+6.50% YoY), while active data subscribers grew to 55.00 million (+9.50% YoY), supported by a 5.50pp increase in smartphone penetration to 66.20% and a 22.90% growth in data traffic.

Across service lines, data revenue increased to NGN827.15bn (+56.20% YoY), on the back of higher usage per subscriber as average data consumption per user rose 12.30% YoY to 14.30GB. Similarly, Voice revenue grew to NGN499.10bn (+22.50% YoY), while Fintech revenue surged to NGN64.19Bn (+77.90% YoY), with core fintech revenue excluding the suspended Xtratime product growing at an even faster +190.60% YoY, supported by stronger deposit balances, increased interest income, and deeper adoption of advanced financial services. 

We maintain an optimistic outlook on MTN Nigeria. This view is based on the expectation of continued outperformance in revenue, driven by volume growth and deepening penetration rather than pricing power alone.

We expect this accelerated investment in network infrastructure to translate into sustained revenue and earnings growth over the medium term. Similarly, the full repayment of foreign currency obligations also represents a material improvement in the company’s risk profile, eliminating a key source of earnings volatility that weighed on financial performance in prior periods. At this stage, we maintain a STRONG BUY rating on MTN Nigeria Plc.

Please click here to download the full report.