Nigerian equities extends bullish run this week, marking a seventh consecutive week of gains as sustained buying interest in DANGCEM (+8.5%), BUACEMENT (+4.1%), MTNN (+2.4%), ETI (+10.7%), UNILEVER (+21.4%), and UBA (+10.0%) drove market performance advance by 2.3% w/w to 250,330.92 points.
May 15, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US headline inflation rose sharply by 50bps to +3.8% y/y in April (March: +3.3% y/y), the highest level since May 2023, and slightly above market expectations of +3.7% y/y. The jump was driven primarily by an uptick in energy inflation, following the still elevated oil prices linked to the ongoing Middle East tensions. Notably, the print marks the first time in three years that wage growth (+3.6% y/y) failed to keep pace with inflation. Energy inflation spiked 17.9% y/y (March: +12.5% y/y), reflecting higher gasoline prices (+28.4% y/y vs March: +18.9% y/y). Likewise, food inflation (+3.2% y/y vs March: +2.7% y/y) edged up, as higher prices for food at home (+2.9% y/y vs March: 1.9% y/y) more than offset the softer reading for food away from home (+3.6% y/y vs March: +3.8% y/y). Elsewhere, core inflation (excluding volatile components) edged higher by 20bps to 2.8% y/y (March: +2.6% y/y), the highest level since September 2025 due to higher prices across the apparel, shelter and education services components. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices moderated by 0.6% m/m (March: +0.9% m/m), as energy prices rose at a slower pace compared with the previous month. Looking ahead, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, driven by elevated energy prices as ongoing Middle East tension and related supply disruptions continue to keep oil prices high, sustaining the passthrough effect on food and core inflation. The persistence of these inflationary pressures reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for longer, while also raising the risk of further monetary tightening if price pressures become more broad based and durable.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the United Kingdom’s real GDP expanded by 0.6% q/q in Q1-26 (Q4-25: +0.2% q/q), in line with market expectations. The improved growth reflects expansion across the services and construction sectors, amid a slowdown in the production sector. More specifically, the services sector rose by 0.8% q/q (Q4-25: +0.2% q/q), following higher wholesale & retail trade, and repair of motor vehicle activities that offset lower administrative and support service activities. Similarly, the construction sector (+0.4% q/q vs Q4-25: -2.8% q/q) grew, reflecting gains in repair and maintenance, which more than offset the decline in new work. Meanwhile, growth in the production sector (+0.2% q/q vs Q4-25: +1.3% q/q) slowed, primarily due to weaker activity in the electricity, gas, steam and air and water supply, sewerage subsectors, amid stable growth in the manufacturing subsector. On a year-on-year basis, the economy expanded by 1.4% y/y in Q1-26 (Q4-25: +1.1% y/y). Looking ahead, while the Q1-26 outturn highlights the resilience of the UK economy, we expect growth momentum to moderate in the near term as elevated energy prices, persistent cost pressures, and supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict weigh on business activity and consumer spending. In addition, still tight financial conditions and subdued new business inflows could constrain private sector expansion, reinforcing our view that growth is likely to remain positive but modest over the coming quarters.
Global Markets
Global equities traded with mixed sentiments this week as investors weighed developments around US-Iran negotiations, mixed macroeconomic data releases, and rising political tensions in the UK. Market participants also assessed outcomes from the recent Trump–Xi summit, although sentiment remained cautious amid limited concrete progress on trade and geopolitical issues, including tensions around Iran and Taiwan. At the time of writing, US equities (DJIA: +0.9%; S&P 500: +1.4%; NASDAQ: +1.5%) were poised to close the week higher, as continued strength in semiconductor stocks particularly at the top of the week offset concerns around a hotter than expected April inflation print. Meanwhile, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: -1.0%; FTSE 100: -0.4%) closed the week lower, pressured by concerns over rising inflation, elevated energy prices, interest rate uncertainty and mounting political tensions in the UK. Similarly, Asian markets (Nikkei 225: -2.1%; SSE: -1.0%) closed lower, weighed down by higher energy prices, profit taking activities, and stronger than expected inflation prints in China and Japan, which dampened expectations for near term rate cuts. Investor sentiment was also pressured by underwhelming reactions to the limited concrete outcomes from the Trump–Xi summit. Finally, the Emerging and Frontier Market (MSCI EM: -2.5%; MSCI FM: -0.9%) indices declined, reflecting losses in China (-1.0%) and Morocco (-3.1%), respectively.
Domestic Economy
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation rose for the second consecutive month, increasing by 31bps to 15.69% y/y in April (March: 15.38% y/y). The sustained increase primarily reflects the continued pass-through effect of elevated energy prices on broader consumer prices. Specifically, the food inflation increased by 176bps to 16.06% y/y (March: 14.31% y/y), primarily driven by a sustained upward pressure on food prices due to constrained supply conditions following the ongoing planting season, alongside elevated logistics costs driven by the spike in energy prices. However, core inflation moderated by 35bps to 15.86% y/y in April (March: 16.21% y/y), reflecting slower increases in energy and transportation costs following the spike recorded in March. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose moderately by 2.13% (March: +4.18% m/m). Inflation is expected to remain on an uptrend, primarily due to elevated petroleum prices and tight food supplies, given the ongoing planting season and persistent insecurity in food-producing areas. Although the relative stability of the naira should help limit imported inflation pressures, its disinflationary impact is likely to be partly offset by high energy costs and persistent food supply constraints. Accordingly, we forecast headline inflation to settle at 2.00% m/m in May, cascading to a y/y print of 16.22%.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates, rose by 7.6% m/m to 1.66 mb/d in April (March: 1.55 mb/d) – its highest level since July 2025. The improvement was underpinned by stronger output from key terminals, particularly Forcados (+41.9% m/m), Cawthorne (+25.0% m/m), Bonga (+7.4% m/m), and Bonny (+5.1% m/m). These gains more than offset weaker production across the Brass (-9.7% m/m), Odudu (-8.5% m/m), Escravos (-7.5% m/m), Qua Iboe (-5.4% m/m), and Agbami (-4.1% m/m) terminals. Looking ahead, we expect crude oil production to improve gradually in the near term, supported by increased oil investment, recent infrastructure upgrades, improved security conditions, and the integration of new oil fields and evacuation routes, including the FSO Cawthorne terminal. However, persistent structural constraints, particularly ageing assets and recurring maintenance-related shutdowns, are likely to limit the pace of output expansion. Overall, we retain our 2026E crude oil production forecast at 1.73 mb/d (2025FY: 1.64 mb/d).
Capital Markets
Equities
Nigerian equities extended its bullish run this week, marking a seventh consecutive week of gains as sustained buying interest in DANGCEM (+8.5%), BUACEMENT (+4.1%), MTNN (+2.4%), ETI (+10.7%), UNILEVER (+21.4%), and UBA (+10.0%) drove market performance. Consequently, the All-Share Index advanced by 2.3% w/w to 250,330.92 points, bringing the month-to-date and year-to-date returns to 3.3% and +60.9%, respectively. Market activity improved as total volume and value traded increased by 18.4% w/w and 24.3% w/w, respectively. On sectors, the Industrial Goods (+4.7%), Banking (+2.8%), Insurance (+2.7%), and Consumer Goods (+1.6%) indices advanced, while the Oil & Gas (-1.2%) index declined.
Next week, we expect trading activity to be relatively volatile, with intermittent buying interest likely to be offset by profit taking activities. Investors will also closely monitor the outcome of the MPC meeting scheduled for May 20th, where we expect the Committee to maintain the MPR at current levels.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate remained broadly stable at 22.2%, as inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.07 trillion) met with OMO PMA debits (NGN1.57 trillion). Accordingly, system liquidity moderated to an average net long position of NGN5.21 trillion, down from NGN5.62 trillion in the prior week, following a weak liquidity balance at the start of the week.
Barring any liquidity mop-up activity by the CBN, system liquidity will likely remain elevated, supported by NGN2.25 trillion in OMO maturity inflows. As a result, we expect the overnight rate to remain depressed.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded on a bearish note with average yields expanding by 15bps to 18.9%. Across segments, the NTB secondary market closed flat, with average yields settling at 17.5%, while yields in the OMO secondary market expanded by 9bps to 21.1% as investors unwound positions to participate in Tuesday’s OMO auction. At the OMO auction, the CBN offered NGN600.00 billion across the 35-, 70- and 126-day tenors, attracting strong demand with total subscriptions of NGN2.71 trillion. The CBN subsequently allotted NGN1.57 trillion across the tenors at stop rates of 21.54%, 20.70% and 20.10%, respectively.
Next week, we anticipate robust system liquidity to support investor demand in the Treasury bills secondary market, maintaining downward pressure on yields. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to conduct an NTB PMA next Wednesday (May 20), with NGN650 billion in bills expected to be offered. At the auction, the elevated liquidity in the financial system is likely to support strong demand, with stop rates expected to remain broadly stable or edge marginally lower.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a mildly bearish note, with the average yield expanding by 1bp to 16.1% amid investor expectations of stronger supply at next Monday’s bond PMA. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield expanded at the mid segment (+4bps), driven by selloffs of the APR-2029 (+43bps) bond. Conversely, the average yield contracted at the short (-7bps) end, driven by demand for the MAR-2027 (-28bps) bond; the long end closed flat. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to reopen the JAN-2035 and APR-2037 bonds at next Monday’s (May 18) auction, where a total of NGN600.00 billion will be offered.
Over the medium term, yields are expected to moderate further, supported by ample domestic liquidity. However, the pace of moderation is likely to be constrained by increased bond supply stemming from the government’s elevated borrowing requirements.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated by 1.0% w/w to NGN1,372.00/USD, as heightened local demand outweighed offshore supply following the OMO auction conducted during the week. Meanwhile, gross external reserves rose by USD148.00 million to USD48.54 billion (14 May 2026), marking the first increase in eight weeks. In the forwards market, the naira rates depreciated across the 1-month (-0.7% to NGN1,394.33/USD), 3-month (-0.6% to NGN1,432.87/USD), 6-month (-0.7% to NGN1,489.27/USD) and 1-year (-1.0% to NGN1,601.92/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near term, although downside risk persists. Despite heightened investor caution stemming from the ongoing US–Iran conflict, a relatively supportive external backdrop and elevated naira yields should continue to underpin foreign portfolio inflows, albeit at a slower pace compared to pre-conflict levels. Nonetheless, should demand pressures re-emerge, we expect the CBN to undertake measured FX interventions to contain excessive volatility.
