February 5, 2021/United Capital
Anglophone West Africa
Ghana
- Standard Bank (parent company of Stanbic Bank Ghana) forecasted a growth rate of 3.5% for Ghana this year. This is a little below that of the International Monetary Fund, Moody’s and Fitch Solutions, which have all projected more than 4.0% GDP growth in 2021.
- Ghana’s crude oil revenue declined by 29.7% last year to $666.4mn, from $947.7mn in 2019.
- The significant fall in revenue reflects the impact of the global oil price crash since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nigeria
- According to OPEC report, average Nigeria’s oil output dropped by 15% y/y to 1.5 million barrels per day (excluding condensate), in 2020.
- According to the banking sector report released by NBS, the non-performing loans in the banking sector rose by N333bn as of the end of the Q3- 2020 to N1.5tn at the end of 2020.
- The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) are to invest a fresh N50 billion in the Nigerian Commodity Exchange.
- The Federal Government of Nigeria in collaboration with the World Bank commenced the process to rebase Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product.
Francophone West Africa
Ivory Coast
- The European Union will contribute €25mn to enhance the economic, social and environmental sustainability of cocoa production in Côte D’Ivoire, Ghana and Cameroon.
- Cote D’Ivoire appointed senior Mars executive to protect cocoa initiative, as surplus drives down prices.
East Africa
Tanzania
- According to the Bank of Tanzania’s monthly economic review for January 2021, domestic banking credit grew by 17.8% y/y at the end of December 2020. We think this is reflective of accommodative monetary policy stance by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) which drove credit expansion.
- Furthermore, the BoT revealed that Tanzania’s FX reserves 0.8% m/m and 14.4% y/y to print at $4.8bn at the end of December 2020. We think is was due to the obvious impact of Covid-19 on FX earnings amidst sustained FX demand pressure.
- At the monthly external merchandise trade statistics media briefing, government officials from the Zanzibar Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS) emphasized the need to produce more farm and industrial products for export in order to curb international trade deficit as well as stimulate economic growth.
Kenya
- In Kenya, private sector activity kickstarted the year on a solid note as Purchasing Managers Index rose to 53.2 index points in January from 51.4 points in December.
Uganda
- In Uganda, the Ministry of Health together with the National Medical Stores (NMS) have ordered 18 million doses of Astra Zeneca from Serum Institute of India. The doses are expected to be administered to 9 million people (which is 20% of their population). Each dose is expected to cost $7 per dose.
Ethiopia
- Ethiopian authorities expect to record economic growth of 8.4% in 2020/21despite sustained concerns about the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Intelligence services in Ethiopia reportedly intercepted a transnational plot aimed at attacking UAE’s embassies in Addis Abba and Khartoum.
Rwanda
- During the week, President Paul Kagame announced an extension to the lockdown in Kigali by one week (till 8th February 2021).
- Disrupt Africa, a tech analysis platform reported that start-ups in Rwanda raised an estimated $4.0m in 2020, significantly higher than 2019’s $1.2m.
Central Africa (CEMAC & Congo DRC)
Gabon
- Gabon’s minister of petroleum has stated the country plans to rump up its oil production in 2021. According to Minister of Finance, Gabon reportedly lost $1.5bn in revenue from lack of investments and lower prices in the last three years. Gabon also stated its plans to develop 35 deep waters.
- Gabon also has set a production target of 300,00bpd to boost its fiscal coffers.
- According to Bloomberg, Gabon plans to export 31k b/d of Ogundejo crude in March compared to 31k b/d in February 2021.
- The Senate in Gabon held its parliamentary elections, with the ruling party winning 45 of the 52 seats available.
Cameroon
- The National Hydrocarbon Corporation of Cameroon (SNH) informs that in late 2020, conducted tests on the well “LA-108ST2” of the Logbaba field located in the Littoral region. The tests showed that the area had an additional estimated reserve of gas reserves estimated to be 30 billion cubic feet and a volume of condensate [natural gas] estimated to be between 100,000 and 300,000 barrels
- The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) in its recently published report on the Q4-2020 evolution of CEMAC export commodity prices reported that in the CEMAC region, only Cameroon exported aluminium in 2020. The country exported 49,300 tons of aluminum earning XAF1,096,600 ($11.4mn) in 2020.
- Cameroon launched its crisis response plan for 2021-2022 amid the pandemic struggle.
- The plan required a total fund of $17,650,000 targeted as helping individuals and entities in the country.
Congo DRC
- Following PM Lungu’s resignation last week, the parliament In DRC has approved the President’s new pick for prime minister. The country has been hit by political uncertainty since last week, following a censure motion in parliament. Almost 400 of the 500 members supported Christophe Mboso.
Southern Africa
S/Africa
- South Africa received its first one million doses of the Covid-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca on Monday. Recent vaccine developments signal a light at the end of the tunnel for the country as it battles a more contagious variant dubbed 501YV2. South Africa is notably the hardest hit on the continent, with more than 1.4 million cases and over 44,000 deaths to date.
- According to the South African Reserve Bank, GDP is unlikely to return to 2019 levels until 2023. The bank expects GDP growth of 3.6% in 2021 and 2.4% in 2022.
- US auto powerhouse, Ford, announced a $1.0bn (R15.8bn) investment into its South African operations. We expect this to boost jobs and potentially spur increased FDI inflows into SA.
- The ABSA Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Jan 2021, in collaboration with the Bureau for Economic Research, climbed tepidly to 50.9 pts from 50.3 in Dec 2020.
Angola
- London-based telecom company, Africell has been granted a 15-year license to commerce operation in Angola. With Africell, Angola now has four (4) major telecom operators.
- Verisk Maplecort reported that Angola debt exposure through its resource-backed loans is a concern in the face of dwindling dollar revenues to service its debt obligations.
- Angola has secured a AZK 77mn ($117,000), from the world bank for purchasing raw materials for the production of soap and cleaning products for its eastern province of Lunda-Sul.
Zambia
- Zambia skipped its Eurobond coupon payment of $56.1mn on 30-Jan-2021. This is the second default since it missed a $42.5m Eurobond coupon payment in Nov-2020.
- According to Stanbic Bank and Markit Economics, the Zambian private sector kicked off the year on a negative note as PMI fell to 47.7pts in Jan-2020 from 49.0pts in Dec-2020, the lowest since Sep-2020.
- Officials announced the postponement of upgrade plans for the Kariba Dam, the main electricity source for both Zambia and Zimbabwe, citing technical challenges and pandemic-induced supply disruptions.
- The Zambian government granted a six-month waiver to 81 oil marketing companies to import finished petroleum products.
Zimbabwe
- Zimbabwe received a donation of 200,000 Covid-19 vaccines from China, including vaccines from Sinopharm, Sinovac Biotech and CanSino. Notably, Zimbabwe is among the first 14 recipients of vaccines from China.
