February 18, 2021/Cordros Report

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released Nigeria’s GDP numbers for Q4-20. The figure was a positive surprise, with real GDP growing by 0.11% y/y (Q3-20: -3.62% y/y | Q4-19: +2.55% y/y). For 2020FY, real GDP contracted by 1.92% (2019FY: +2.27%).

A cursory examination of the GDP figures’ breakdown showed that the oil sector remained in the woods, contracting by 19.76% y/y (compared to growth of 6.36% y/y in Q4-19). According to NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.56mb/d in Q4-20, 22.0% y/y lower than Q4-19. The oil sector contributed 5.87% to total GDP (vs 7.32% Q4-19) during the review period.

Similarly, the non-oil sector grew slower by 1.69% y/y in Q4-20 (vs 2.26% in Q4-19). The non-oil sector contributed 94.13% to total GDP (vs 92.68% and 91.30% in Q4-19 and Q3-20, respectively).

Analysing the breakdown of three of the most significant components of the GDP: Agriculture grew stronger by 3.42% y/y (vs 1.39% y/y in Q3-20); Industries contracted by 7.30% y/y, (vs -6.12% y/y in Q3-20); while Services grew by 1.39% (vs -5.49% y/y in Q3-20).

In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 54.28%, 26.95%, and 18.77% of overall output growth.