—–growth momentum expected to be sustained through FY 2026
May 18, 2026/CSL Research
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc delivered a robust Q1 2026 performance, underpinned by strong growth across its core business segments. Total Revenue increased by 41.6% y/y to ₦1.5 trillion, driven primarily by significant expansion in Data Revenue, alongside solid contributions from Voice, Fintech, and Digital services. Looking ahead, we expect sustained subscriber growth, deeper internet penetration, and continued investments in network infrastructure to support further revenue expansion, with FY 2026 Total Revenue projected to reach ₦6.6 trillion, up 27.4% from ₦5.2 trillion in FY 2025.
Profitability improved significantly in Q1 2026, supported by strong topline growth, lower direct network costs, and a more stable foreign exchange environment. EBITDA rose by 68.1% y/y to ₦828.3 billion, while EBITDA margin expanded to 55.3% from 46.4% in Q1 2025, reflecting improved operating leverage and ongoing cost-efficiency measures. In addition, the company recorded an FX gain during the quarter and fully repaid its outstanding foreign currency loans, significantly reducing exposure to currency volatility and funding risks. Consequently, Pre-Tax Profit rose sharply by 169.6% y/y to ₦546.42 billion, in Q1 2026, and we forecast FY 2026 Pre-Tax Profit to increase to ₦2.4 trillion, up from ₦1.7 trillion in FY 2025.
Strategic initiatives, including the proposed fintech restructuring and MTN Group’s acquisition of IHS Towers, are expected to enhance long-term operational flexibility, strengthen infrastructure capacity, and support sustainable value creation, reinforcing our buy recommendation and target price of ₦1,015.50/s. The target price implies an upside potential of 23.8% relative to the last closing price of ₦820.00/s as of 15 May 2026. Our valuation is based on a blended methodology combining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and relative valuation approaches, weighted at 60:40, respectively.
To read full report, click on the link below
MTNN Q1 2026 Company Update .pdf
