May 21, 2026/Cordros Report
In this update, we present our 2026E outlook for Access Holdings Plc (ACCESSCORP) following the release of its 2025FY and Q1-26 results. Following our review, we upgrade our target price from NGN28.07 to NGN36.55, representing a 44.5% upside from the last traded price of NGN25.30, while maintaining our BUY rating. The upward revision to our TP reflects our expectation of a rebound in NIMs to 5.0% (2025FY: 4.2%), supported primarily by improved funding costs. However, this is partly offset by still elevated loan, Eurobond, and receivables provisioning, alongside lingering uncertainty around the group’s dividend outlook. Although ACCESSCORP could resolve the 10.0% foreign investment holding cap that prevented the payment of a final dividend for 2025FY during 2026FY, we maintain a conservative stance and assume no dividend payment in 2026FY. Based on our 2026E estimates, the stock trades at 0.28x P/BV and 1.68x P/E.
Stronger core earnings amid elevated credit costs: We forecast loan growth of 10.0% in 2026E. However, moderating asset yields are expected to keep interest income relatively subdued, growing marginally by 1.1% y/y to NGN3.59 trillion. Nonetheless, improved funding costs and balance sheet deleveraging, particularly the unwinding of elevated interbank deposit obligations, should also buoy a decline in interest expense. Consequently, net interest income is forecast to increase by 25.7% y/y to NGN1.70 trillion in 2026E, with NIM improving to 5.0% from 4.2% in 2025FY. We also expect impairment charges to decline by 26.7% y/y to NGN383.95 billion, reflecting the sizable provisioning already undertaken in 2025. That said, provisioning pressures on Eurobond holdings and receivables are expected to remain elevated. Below the impairment line, non-interest income is projected to remain broadly flat at NGN1.81 trillion, as the 20.0% y/y growth in fee and commission income is likely to be offset by softer fair value and FX related gains. Meanwhile, OPEX is forecast to rise by 23% y/y, driven by higher staff and AMCON costs. This should translate to a CIR of 57.3%. Overall, we forecast a PBT of NGN1.12 trillion (+11.0% y/y) and a PAT of NGN838.43 billion (+12.8% y/y), implying an EPS of NGN15.42.
Delayed dividend resumption: The CBN prevented ACCESSCORP from paying dividends in 2025. The suspension of the H1-25 dividend was driven by the CBN’s minimum paid up capital requirement for HoldCo structures, while the group’s inability to pay a final dividend for 2025FY stemmed from a separate CBN regulation capping investments in foreign subsidiaries at 10.0% of shareholders’ funds. ACCESSCORP currently maintains foreign subsidiary exposures at c.19.0% of shareholders’ funds and has been granted a 12-month remediation window. Although management has indicated plans to resolve the issue, we retain a conservative stance and assume that dividend payments will not resume until 2027FY.
Valuation: Our TP of NGN36.55/s is derived from a blend of the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and a Gordon Growth Model (GGM). Under the DDM framework, applying a 27.8% Cost of Equity alongside a payout of 0.0% in 2026E and 15.0% from 2027E implies a TP of NGN30.02/s. Meanwhile, the GGM, based on the same 27.8% COE and a 5-year average RoE of 15.7%, implies a valuation of NGN51.80/s. Applying a 70.0% weight to the DDM and a 30.0% weight to the GGM, we derive a 12-month target price of NGN36.55/s.
