The national accounts for Q1 ‘22 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that GDP grew by 3.1% y/y compared with the 3.9% y/y recorded in Q4 ’21. This expansion can be partly attributed to positive base effects (GDP grew by 0.51% y/y in Q1 ’21). Meanwhile, on a q/q basis, it contracted by -14.7%, reflecting slower economic activity compared with the preceding quarter.

• The oil economy contracted by -26.0% y/y in Q1, compared with -8.1% y/y recorded in Q4. Based on data from the NBS, average crude oil production in Q1 was 1.49mbpd compared with 1.50mbpd in the previous quarter and 1.72mbpd in Q1 ‘21. As at end-March, the OPEC production quota for Nigeria was 1.7mbpd. Meanwhile, the revised FGN oil production benchmark is 1.6mbpd. The sector has suffered from production shut-ins as a result of massive theft of crude oil between production platforms and terminals over the past months. 
• The non-oil economy grew by 6.1% y/y in Q1 ’22 compared with 4.7% y/y in Q4 ‘21. Key drivers within the non-oil economy include finance and insurance (23.2% y/y), telecommunications (14.5% y/y), trade (6.5% y/y), manufacturing (5.9% y/y), construction (4.8% y/y), real estate (4.4% y/y), and agriculture (3.2% y/y). Combined, these sectors account for 75.6% of total GDP in Q1. 
• Agriculture grew by 3.2% y/y in Q1 compared with 3.6% y/y recorded in the preceding quarter. Crop production was the major driver of the sector and accounted for 87% of agriculture GDP, the segment grew by 2.9% y/y. The livestock, forestry, and fisheries segments grew by 5.6% y/y, 1.4% y/y, and 3.1% y/y respectively. Agriculture contributed 22.4% to real GDP in Q1 ’22. The sector’s performance can be partly hinged upon the CBN’s interventions in the sector (i.e., through the anchor borrowers program). However, the sector is still challenged by insecurity in specific farming areas as well as storage and logistics difficulties, among others.      
• Telecommunications posted growth of 14.5% y/y compared with 5.3% y/y recorded in Q4 ‘21. The segment continues to benefit from modest growth in subscriptions and increased usage from existing subscribers. As businesses adjust to the new hybrid work structure, there has been increased demand for data which has supported the significant boost. Fintech and digital services have also contributed to growth in this sector.  
• The trickle-down effect of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis includes an uptick in prices of deregulated petroleum products (such as diesel and aviation fuel) and prices of select manufacturing inputs like wheat. This has an adverse effect on the operational activities of businesses within the manufacturing sector.  
• On a q/q basis, manufacturing grew by 2.9% in Q1. However, it posted a y/y growth of  5.9% y/y in Q1 compared with 2.3% y/y recorded in Q4 ‘21. Within the sector, the food and beverages segment grew by 9.8% y/y and accounted for 50% of total manufacturing GDP. Meanwhile, the textile, apparel, and footwear segment contracted by -1.2% y/y. Cement posted growth of 9.6% y/y.