Nigeria’s Real GDP Increased by 3.46% Y/Y in Q4-23

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February 22, 2024/Cordros Update

Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the domestic economy maintained its growth pace for the third consecutive quarter in Q4-23, as the real GDP rose by 3.46% y/y (Q3-23: +2.54% y/y). The growth outturn is 72bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (+2.74% y/y) and 106bps higher than Bloomberg’s median consensus (+2.40% y/y) estimate.

According to the GDP breakdown provided, the oil sector turned positive in Q4-23 (+12.11% y/y | Q3-23: -0.85% y/y), as crude oil production increased by 6.8% y/y to an average of 1.53mb/d in Q4-23 (Q3-23 1.43mb/d). Consequently, the oil sector contributed 4.70% to the total GDP (Q3-23: 5.48%) during the review period.

At the same time, the non-oil sector sustained its positive growth trend, increasing by 3.07% y/y in Q4-23 (Q3-23: +2.75% y/y). Accordingly, the non-oil sector contributed 95.30% to the total GDP (vs 94.52% in Q3-23).

From a sectoral perspective, Agriculture GDP increased by 2.10% y/y (Q3-23: +1.30% y/y), Industries GDP grew by 3.86% y/y (Q3-23: +0.46% y/y), while Services GDP moderated marginally to 3.98% y/y (Q3-23: +3.99% y/y).

In terms of contributions, Services, Agriculture, and Industries had a total of 56.55%, 26.11% and 17.34% of overall output growth.

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